Global judgement : it's all about Koursk
I'm not a total expert player, but I have played all the axis and allies games (except anniversary edition) since 1995.
Me and two brothers like to play that game. We played 6-7 games of the new Europe 1940. Results where quite different each time.
But the main conclusion I can draw from those games is that is it harder for Axis to win; they have to win some (2-3) criticals battles that they almost cannot afford to loose. The opposite is not always true.
Criticals battles you dont want to loose - or have a bad result as an Axis player :
The Battle of Paris (dont laugh, you have a 15-20% chance of ruining you game right there if you dont send any air plane).
Sealion on turn 2 or 3 - if you tried it, may not work, or even if it work... (1)
Russia first big battle on turn 4 or 5 (often, this battle take place near bielorussia)(2)
Russia second big battle on turn 6 - 7 (Often near Briansk) (2)
Russia last push on turn 7+ (Moscow) (2)
Any battle envolving Italian Fleet in the early game
(1) : If the battle odds turn just a little in favor of UK, maybe because an AA lucky 2 or 3 hits, you may have to loose lot's of GER planes. Or you may even get push back. Those lost in planes + the spending in boat may weaken significantly against USSR.
(2) After playing a few games, it's almost always being solve on a big battle on the Russian front. Sometimes USSR attack, sometimes it's Germany. Usually those battle evolve a total of 35+ units on each side.
As an Axis player, you may have a lot of difficulty to recover from any of those battles, if you loose. Has an allied player, and also with the tremendous USA production, you can afford some of those defeat; Really harder for the Axis player to recover.
So, I after playing a few games, my conclusion is that the game is almost always being solve on a big battle on the Russian front. Sometimes USSR attack, sometimes it's Germany. Usually those battle evolve a total of 35+ units on each side. The only thing I dislike, sometimes you play a nice and equal game until your arrive to that "main Kourk battle" in Russia. And then, dices decide of the faith of those 3-4 nice spent hours.
But sometimes it doesnt... Battle dices are just fair and now Russia is now en empty field, with all remaining units being more than valuable. Those little Italian can now open a southern front... And "battle for moscow 1944" is now possible. . . while USA threat is at it worse. "Watch out of the Denmark fall to UK, because US can land on Berlin !". That happen the turn Moscow was lost to Germany...
I'll soon try your Alpha rules, with those scrambling figthers. Seems nice.