To me, it's logical that the USA would go for the closest islands - and since the Phillipines should be Japanese by the end of their first turn, that leaves either the Bonin Islands or Mariana Islands for the USA to capture.
I'm still assuming a halfway-decent and not incredibly unlucky Japanese player - so he should have wiped out all American ships around Hawaii, too.
All of the States' remaining transports are at least 2 turns away from those islands (and that's assuming Midway is still American, and can therefore use its naval base). Also, there should be a huge Japanese Navy in the way. If the transports leave ASAP, the most they have for protection is 2 subs, 3 destroyers and 2 fully loaded carriers - which isn't bad, at all, but it's spread out all over the board (would take time to get all that together) and it will likely have to go up against a much stronger force, when it does meet up. Finally, if the transports DO make it to those islands - which are only 1 or 2 seazones away from Japan, and hence easy to reinforce - they have to suffer through kamikazes, which allow the Japanese player to pick his targets. If all 3 starting US transports make it that far, it's not too hard for the Japanese player to target them, sink all the invading units, and forget about being invaded.
Maybe I'm just pessimistic, but I don't see how it could happen
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