There's reactions for everything. It turns into a big game of if/then/else.
A seasoned UK player will rarely lose London, and only due to bad rolling.
If Germany clears out their fleet Rd1, then they buy 9 Inf.
If Germany buys naval units Rd1, they they fly planes back to London Rd1 (Gibraltar Ftr flies to London, Malta Ftr flies to Gibraltar then London) and don't scramble for any naval battles Rd1.
The power of the Axis comes in dictating Allied strategy. You KNOW the UK player will buy Inf Rd 1. If he doesn't, you can make him pay by taking London.
The fluidity of the German strategy must be that if the UK buys infantry and takes a defensive stance (not scrambling planes during the Round 1 naval clearing) in anticipation of a possible invasion, then Germany attacks Russia and buys tanks instead of transports in Round 2. The UK can stomp the German odds down to below 1/5, which isn’t a really good gamble for the Germans.
The assumption that the US will pressure Italy if the UK falls is also false. They CAN, but it’s very difficult. Germany will have 10+ planes, plus extra subs for hits they’ve purchased and deployed in Normandy. With the addition of an airbase in Normandy, or if they fly out of London, those Fighters and Tacs can hit the SZ West of Gibraltar (SZ 31) and land in Algeria (taken by Italy).
Now, the US might be able to build up enough protection for its TTs and land units to survive a counter-assault of 10 planes combined with a few subs, and then a second follow-up counter-assault of whatever Italy can bring by round 4, but ONLY if they’ve spent absolutely nothing at Japan. Japan will claim a Pacific victory if the US doesn’t spend any money that way.
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