When should Japan declare war on the Allies?

Link up A&A Pacific 1940 and Europe 1940, and you've got Axis & Allies Global 1940.
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EsgibtkeinBier
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2014 1:32 pm

When should Japan declare war on the Allies?

Post by EsgibtkeinBier » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:21 pm

Hello everyone!

I’ve been playing A&A for many years but today’s the day I decided to post a thread here (though I’ve been hiding in the shadows for a long time :P).
Thing is, I wanted to hear your opinion regarding the most efficient turn for Japan to declare a war on the Allies (playing with the Alpha +3 rules) and to share my thoughts on the matter with you.
Any feedback would be much appreciated :)

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I am convinced that the best turn for Japan to attack is the second one. Why is that so? Because, in my point of view, taking India (and then China) out of the war early on is the only way Japan can survive. However by turn three India will be too fortified unless the UK player is deprived of his precious income and access to the East Indies.
Therefore attacking as early as possible is crucial.

So, why turn two?

Japan

by declaring war earlier than turn 3:
- gets the 20 IPCs of E. Indies earlier
- harasses India earlier and denies its income (from both home and Dutch territories) –which is crucial as far as my main strategic objective is concerned–
- is able to threaten India earlier by building an I.C. on Malaya

by not declaring war on turn 1:
- gets 10 IPCs due to the trade agreement with the US
- deprives the US of their 20 IPCs (not counting the Philippines objective) and major ICs for a turn
- is able to focus on inflicting casualties at China and closing the Burma road on turn one
- gives its forces a better position to attack en masse
- partially conceals its intentions to the Allies

~~

After the capture of Malaya, Borneo and Kwantung on Turn 2 India will have an income around 7 IPCs. The use of the two initial strategic bombers (and a couple of more built in future turns) will ensure that nothing more is produced at those Indian industrial complexes. Meanwhile a factory in Malaya will provide a steady flow of three tanks/ turn only two turns away from India.
With the full might of Japan falling on Calcutta and no income to support its defences its fall on turn 5 seems inevitable, though at what cost?

Decided to keep it short because the what-ifs are almost infinite...
I presume that only the contours of the grand strategies of Global can be analysed because trying to figure the permutations of a five-turn horizon drives a man insane :P
Many thanks for reading and even more thanks for those who spend some of their time replying!

Regards,
Theodore

Whackamatt
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:49 am

Re: When should Japan declare war on the Allies?

Post by Whackamatt » Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:16 pm

Welcome, Theodore.
EsgibtkeinBier wrote:Thing is, I wanted to hear your opinion regarding the most efficient turn for Japan to declare a war on the Allies (playing with the Alpha +3 rules) and to share my thoughts on the matter with you.
Any feedback would be much appreciated
Right off the bat, I’d say there is no “most efficient” turn for Japan. It depends on your overall AXIS strategy, and yes, the two are related and affect one another. If Germany does X, then a J2 could be the best option.

For example, if Germany is going “all-in” against Russia, focusing on tank/mech buys and a last minute bomber purchase, declaring war from Round 1, hoping to sack Moscow by Round 6 (it can happen), then any DOW against the Allies by Japan before Round 4 would be detrimental. In such a scenario, Germany wants no interference from the US in attacking Italy and threatening the Western coast. If Japan attacks and the US is allowed to move transports to Gibraltar on Round 2, Germany may need to start diverting forces & buys towards the West, which could weaken the offensive enough to fail in Russia.
EsgibtkeinBier wrote:
I am convinced that the best turn for Japan to attack is the second one. Why is that so? Because, in my point of view, taking India (and then China) out of the war early on is the only way Japan can survive.
This is an assumption by my part, but it sounds as if you’re analyzing this from a board-game perspective, and haven’t played online or via forum through axisandallies.org. I once tried to rationalize the “best turn”, etc., but had many incorrect assumptions about how a “typical” game played out. Most games will last into the 9-12 Round range, by which time, the over-analyzing of the first 3 rounds is moot. In person I’ve had few games go past 7-8, as mistakes are made which might not have online, and people project about what would happen and quit too soon.

Also, you mention Japanese survival. How long do you need them to survive? That depends on what Germany is doing. Through careful, concentrated gains, Japan can “survive” a dozen turns easy or even win. In my opinion, the Axis powers come down to who is going to win the game for you through VCs (Germany/Italy or Japan), and the other side of the board must survive and threaten for as long as possible to pull Allied resources away from your victory theatre.
I will try and look up some old game files I have where I won as Japan and report back when I attacked to do so.

EsgibtkeinBier wrote: However by turn three India will be too fortified unless the UK player is deprived of his precious income and access to the East Indies.
Therefore attacking as early as possible is crucial.
This depends on how you want to win. It sounds like you’re going for an India Crush move where you take it out Round 3. Doable, yes, but it’s certainly possible to take India well past that point. Not taking India in three doesn’t mean Japan will never win, it simply means it will take longer to do so.

Think of it this way: If it’s clear you can’t take India on round 3, you can do it later through slow play. Focus on the DEI for money, and with gains in China and Russia, you can be above 70 ICs. Concentrate on out-maneuvering the US fleet while keeping yours concentrated. Factories in China will help you get land units towards India. With several subs around India and no other islands for money, it’s quite easy to get India to an income of 3-6ICs a turn. That’s 2 infantry a turn. All Japan has to do is out-purchase them and place more towards India then that, and eventually they will fall, guaranteed. However, the difficulty with this is of course, in holding off the US fleet.

This all comes full-circle into my AXIS as a team theory. If the US spends 100% of its income against Japan, Japan will lose, period. However, that means the AXIS could still win, because a Germany left alone will most certainly take Russia.

EsgibtkeinBier wrote: So, why turn two? (for a fast Pacific victory with Japan)

Japan

by declaring war earlier than turn 3:
- gets the 20 IPCs of E. Indies earlier
- harasses India earlier and denies its income (from both home and Dutch territories) –which is crucial as far as my main strategic objective is concerned–
- is able to threaten India earlier by building an I.C. on Malaya
All valid points. The denial of income is nice, but Japan will always make more than India, so it’s not as crucial as you think. I suppose if you want India by Round 3, it’s crucial, but not if you’re doing a slower-play of Japan.
As to the factory, you can also place one in French Indo China (FIC), or two starting factories in Shantung and Kiangsu which can have tanks reaching India by Round 4
EsgibtkeinBier wrote: by not declaring war on turn 1:
- gets 10 IPCs due to the trade agreement with the US
- deprives the US of their 20 IPCs (not counting the Philippines objective) and major ICs for a turn
- is able to focus on inflicting casualties at China and closing the Burma road on turn one
- gives its forces a better position to attack en masse
- partially conceals its intentions to the Allies
-Ah, but you do lose the income from not having FIC, so it’s only a +8 shift overall.
-The US really doesn’t care about the income, and the lack of it isn’t a big game-changer in the games I’ve seen. What really matters is when they can start to move their forces and attack things. Even with their lower, modest income that is double Japan’s, they can place 3 carriers a turn on the Western US. Buy all planes once war has been declared, and within two rounds all those carriers and planes can meet in the sea of Japan (SZ6).
-Closing the Burma road is important, but it will happen regardless of when you attack, really. India can rarely afford to send stuff into China if you’re actively threatening them. And China usually reopens the road several times before you can close it permanently. Plus you can inflict MORE casualties on China if you wait for a J3 or J4 and really get them out of the picture.
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EsgibtkeinBier wrote:partially conceals its intentions to the Allies
There is absolutely NO WAY an Allied player wouldn’t know what you’re doing. You can’t conceal your intentions when they’re written in the rule book! Gain 6 VCs in the Pacific. When you move your fleet towards India, they know you’re going towards India. It doesn’t really matter though, as there is very little India can do about it.

EsgibtkeinBier wrote: After the capture of Malaya, Borneo and Kwantung on Turn 2 India will have an income around 7 IPCs. The use of the two initial strategic bombers (and a couple of more built in future turns) will ensure that nothing more is produced at those Indian industrial complexes. Meanwhile a factory in Malaya will provide a steady flow of three tanks/ turn only two turns away from India.
With the full might of Japan falling on Calcutta and no income to support its defences its fall on turn 5 seems inevitable, though at what cost?
Wah? 5 Turns? So have you never taken India by Round 3? A much faster approach is:
Round 1: Buy three transports, move everything south and west. Take Yunnan and French Indo China.
Round 2: Buy 1 naval base & 1 air base. Clear out India/ANZAC naval blockers. Use planes/landing units to remove any land units that can retake Shan State and/or Yunnan. Place naval base on the island of Hainan. Place Air base on French Indo China (where all your land-based planes land)
Round 3: Attack with 6 transports (12 land units) plus 11 fighters, 8 tac, 2 strat bombers. Take India. It is IMPOSSIBLE for India to defend against it, regardless of how many DEI it takes. Besides which, if you’re taking their capital, you’ll plunder their money, so you really don’t need to bomb/convoy if you’re doing it in three rounds.
EsgibtkeinBier wrote:though at what cost?
This is really the great question for any strategy. Identify the key players and analyze how they can move against you when you do this attack.
Congrats on taking India…but what next? You’re still a VC away from winning, which means either taking Hawaii, Australia, or the WUS.

For your 5-turn India move, how do you keep the US fleet from encircling Japan, taking Korea, placing a factory and choking you to death?
The main juggling act for Japan is keeping the US fleet at bay by maintaining a superior navy until you finally pass them in income. Japan can match the US once it has the DEI, most of China, and parts of Russia. The hard part is breaking off enough to counter small India/Anzac forces, fending off a Russian stack of 18 inf & 2 aa, while still pushing into China, neutering India’s money, and staying ahead of the US fleet/air force power.

So your strategy sounds good. There are ways to take India faster, but everything is at a cost to something else.

I've had successes and failures for all opening scenarios, a J1, J2, J3, J4, don't declare war and let the US declare it on you first.

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